I have no medical background, but do have a high degree of training in statistical analysis, and have worked in that field.Originally Posted by rddvet
I have seen so much poor analysis lately it drives me nuts. Some is so bad, I can only assume bias. ...or a commitment to being obtuse at the very least.
I really try to stay out of it as to not look like the a-hole, but there are so many people that have no clue what they're talking about and have no knowledge of statistics and in specific epidemiologic statistics that love to do all of these math problems to come up with numbers. It drives me nuts and I truly think it's detrimental to society and truly a form of fear mongering. Even if someone took a basic stats course in high school or college, they should know you can't just take numbers and start multiplying.
I really do bite my tongue more than it seems, but eventually I can't shut up. I've found even people that I have thought to be logical and intelligent people reading crap on the internet or hearing on the news and then suddenly doing a quick math problem and come up with long term numbers. I lose a little respect for them very quickly.
Do you know any of these numbers?
People got scared when they saw what happened in Italy including me (I don't know whether you get much news from outside the US). I think that's understandable. People have been turned down for treatment at hospitals because the health system is/was overwhelmed. Do you think this is all made up? We (Germany) just starting to open shops and other stuff back up again... now that the health care system had some time to stock up on PPE, ICU beds and ramp up testing... that's what the shutdown was for. Buying time to be able to take care of the people who will get sick...
What other choices are there? Would you really want your country be the guinea pig so you can find out how bad this is? Really?
... and not even Trump is willing to make that bet and he is nuts (not being political, I'm sure even most of his fans think he's nuts but they like it).
Who says people are heros for 'unemploying millions of people'? Always accusing the opposite site of being malicous is counterproductive, man. That's not helping anyone.
What a stroke!
Really? Name calling? Is this all you have?
"Have you ever noticed
When you're feeling really good
There's always a pigeon
That'll come shiat on your hood?" John Prine 4-7-2020
"Into the blue again; in the silent water
Under the rocks, and stones; there is water underground" Talking Heads
"Anyone know the corona deaths vs flu deaths this year and 2017"
The C.D.C. tracks flu season as being a 26 week (6 month) period from October 1 to April 1. Each "flu season" is identified by the TWO years in which the season occurred.
The following data is found on the C.D.C. website
2010-11 37,000 deaths (best estimates)
2011-12 12,000 deaths
2012-13 23,000 deaths
2013-14 38,000 deaths
2014-15 51,000 deaths
2015-16 23,000 deaths
2016-17 38,000 deaths
2017-18 34,000 deaths
There were NO COVID deaths during the period 2010-2019
The FIRST confirmed US death from Covid occured Jan 29, 2020
For the first 3 weeks of the COVID Pandemic, death rates were too small to be tracked significantly
For the 6 week period March 17 to April 27, 58,258 Americans died.
The INCREASE in American death rates has slowed to a Daily increase of 2.4%,
or a doubling of death rate every 31 days.
Down from a peak increase of death rate doubling every 3 days in late March, 2020.
Fatality Demographics are based on KNOWN COVID positive cases, NOT general public
Death rate by age:
10 to 50 yrs old : 0.5% mortality
50 to 80 yr old: linear rise from 0.5% to 15% mortality
Death rate by Gender
Male: 2.7% mortality
Female: 1.7% mortality
Comorbidities:
88% of deaths had 2 or more comorbidities
6.3% of deaths had only 1 comorbidities
6.1% of deaths had no known comorbidities
Comorbidities ranked from highest to lowest:
Hypertension
Obesity
Coronary Artery Disease
Asthma
Congestive Heart Failure
Cancer
C.O.P.D.
Kidney disease/insufficiency/failure
Personal Opinion: ANY (repeat ANY) attempt to "plot" a future trend of ANYTHING involved in COVID is a lost cause. EVERY SINGLE prediction has proved wrong by orders of magnitude. Some high, some low. The simple fact is that we are in COMPLETELY UNKNOWN territory here, and we can ONLY track PAST trends with any level of accuracy.
That being said, the general slowing of new cases and death rates does give me some hope. Even though there are FAR too many unknown variables to make any predictions.
May God stand between you and harm in all the dark places we must walk.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
It seems to me there is a good chance that the number of deaths from coronavirus has been overstated. I recently read an article where it was stated Pennsylvania decreased their count by 200.
Also Cavekrazi -- what is your point?
In New York, our fatality rates have had to be revised Upward, because of early deaths that were NOT attributed to COVID. We also have the New York City problem of unattended deaths at home not being counted. Only "official" deaths in hospitals or health facilities have been counted as COVID deaths in the past.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
So proof that as I?ve been saying nobody f-in knows the full story. Therefore how can internet cowboys know how to calculate future deaths? They cant.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Taking actions (removing stay at home) without accurate predictions of future events (infection/fatality rates) is kind of like cave diving in OC WITHOUT pressure gauges.
Do you push your luck, and risk getting fatally "bitten in the butt". OR be ULTRA conservative because you cannot safely know the risks?
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
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