Dive Conditions Prognostication

[BigTex1836]

Hello,

Are there any general observations in prognosticating what the dive conditions may be certain FL caves in the coming days? Ie, if S Georgia gets more than 2" of rain expect Peacock to be blown out 3 days later... etc...

Thanks
Eric

[FW]

The rivers are dropping, and no rain in south Georgia until next week, so things should be good. Madison is probably still tannic, but the rest are good.

[victorzamora]

Kelly just posted that Madison is back open with 20-30ft viz and very high flow.

It seems like there are no hard rules for cave prognosis.....one must rely on DiReps (pilots have PiReps or Pilot Reports, we need DiReps!). Seems to me like the rules of thumb are S.GA and N.FL rains blow out Cave Country caves.....and springtime isn't a great time for those caves, either.

[Kelly Jessop]

Hello,

Are there any general observations in prognosticating what the dive conditions may be certain FL caves in the coming days? Ie, if S Georgia gets more than 2" of rain expect Peacock to be blown out 3 days later... etc...

Thanks
Eric

Each system behaves differently,and there is no sure rules of thumb because there are so many factors at play. For example,a well recharged aquifer will not always reverse quickly,and will clear up faster,but this is a difficult thing to judge. I use many things in figuring what to expect- when some people I know that live the river have their wells go tannic and then clear, some test wells that are sampled for conductivity,river stage when the reversal occurred and if it is dropping quickly to name a few. We are supposed to have a rainy winter,because it seems like the spring rains have moved to earlier in the year. If this is the case,then we could see repeat of the past couple years. Note, this is normal and needed part of the cave ecosystems,the drought years,although they allowed year round diving were actually bad for the cave systems.

[T. Bix]

Any signs that the water levels are dropping?

[Kelly Jessop]

Any signs that the water levels are dropping?

Yes,but slow, especially since south GA got a lot of rain last weekend

Gauge at Pinetta on the Withlacoochee is still at action stage after having gone into minor flood stage,so Madison will be blown for awhile

Suwannee Luraville peaked 31.22 on Jan 4th,but still above 30'; at Branford peaked Jan5th,but only dropped a few inches

[adam_Hughes]

When the Withlacoochee flooded this go-around, There was tons of mud/debris dumped into the Suwannee. For the last few weeks, the river water's been a real muddy/chunky mess. I suspect once stuff starts springing again, it will take a little bit to get all that junk out.






However, worth mentioning that there are still dozens of systems springing clear right now (just not any along the Suwannee). The Ichetucknee & Santa Fe are doing great right now.

[FW]

,,, I suspect once stuff starts springing again, it will take a little bit to get all that junk out.

Sad, but very true!

[adam_Hughes]

Forrest or Kelly,

Is this usually the case with these type of floods? I've seen the river levels this high before, but never with them moving at this clip or this amount of debris. I'm new to this, so I'm still trying to understand how it all works (as I'm sure others are too). Over the last few weeks, there have been some incredibly dramatic apocalyptic type stuff happening out there. At one point, I saw entire fully grown oak trees drifting down the river.

Here's a before and after near Falmouth right when the flood started. The pictures where taken 72 hours apart, and show at least a 10' rise is river level accompanied with water that had the consistency of chocolate milk. Blew my freaking mind:

[FW]

Forrest or Kelly,

Is this usually the case with these type of floods? I've seen the river levels this high before, but never with them moving at this clip or this amount of debris. I'm new to this, so I'm still trying to understand how it all works (as I'm sure others are too). Over the last few weeks, there have been some incredibly dramatic apocalyptic type stuff happening out there. At one point, there was an entire fully grown oak tree drifting along the river.

Here's a before and after near Falmouth right when the flood started. The pictures where taken 72 hours apart, and show at least a 10' rise is river level accompanied with water that had the consistency of chocolate milk. Blew my freaking mind:

Only when it rains so hard and fast in Georgia. If you look at the slope of the river rise, you will see it is much steeper than normal. That Is why I was warning against going into Little River, in case it reversed while someone was in there. Under normal river rise, you can dive right up until it reverses, and still be able to swim out. I have seen Little River sucking water in so fast that logs were swirling in a whirlpool over the entrance, with the center depressed several inches. That is probably over twenty times the normal outflow, even when it is pumping so hard you have trouble swimming in. Imaging trying to swim out with even twice that current, nevermind twenty times that.