Dive Conditions Prognostication

[patpicos]

my bet is peacock will reopen when the gauge drops below 28' based on the most recent flood. At this rate....that will be at the end of January. River very slow to drop.

The most recent flood was from 03/21/2014 to 06/05/2014. The cave flooded between 29.38' and 30.33'. It reopened between 28.18' and 27.47'

Typically, based on last 2-3 years (except the 2012 flood), the cave reopens shortly after the river drops 1' below the level the cave originally closed.

[patpicos]

analysis data using facebook content from NFSA page and USGS gauges
http://bit.ly/1xUqV2g

[Danseur]

my bet is peacock will reopen when the gauge drops below 28' based on the most recent flood. At this rate....that will be at the end of January. River very slow to drop.

The most recent flood was from 03/21/2014 to 06/05/2014. The cave flooded between 29.38' and 30.33'. It reopened between 28.18' and 27.47
Typically, based on last 2-3 years (except the 2012 flood), the cave reopens shortly after the river drops 1' below the level the cave originally closed.

Awesome, thorough explanation! Thank you!

[FW]

my bet is peacock will reopen when the gauge drops below 28' based on the most recent flood. At this rate....that will be at the end of January. River very slow to drop.

The most recent flood was from 03/21/2014 to 06/05/2014. The cave flooded between 29.38' and 30.33'. It reopened between 28.18' and 27.47'

Typically, based on last 2-3 years (except the 2012 flood), the cave reopens shortly after the river drops 1' below the level the cave originally closed.

That may not work out this year. The river went up much faster than normal.

[adam_Hughes]

I like the spreadsheet. However, in my experience, trying to predict this stuff is like herding cats.

[Kelly Jessop]

, trying to predict this stuff is like herding cats.

Wow,you are giving it better odds than I would. I would use the Carl Sagan method,"...billions and billions..."

[patpicos]

Still fun to poke at the data. Been fairly consistent except 2012.

Better than nothing. At least I can do some monitoring from far away and help with trip planning

[adam_Hughes]

Still fun to poke at the data.

Absolutely! I too have poured hours and hours into spreadsheets trying to conceptualize this. It just seems like every time I drive out somewhere expecting to see a certain condition, it's damn near opposite. But every once in a while, you'll get it right, and it feels like you won the lottery. Don't get to disheartened if your predictions don't pan out, because I sure did. Do you have any other spreadsheets that you wouldn't mind sharing?

[Kelly Jessop]

Still fun to poke at the data. Been fairly consistent except 2012.

Better than nothing. At least I can do some monitoring from far away and help with trip planning

Nothing wrong with looking at the data,it will get you close. I get pretty close to figuring out when springs will reverse based on river gauges and other factors,but even then, it is a ballpark number. Madison has always been one that I thought was pretty simple,until last late spring we saw it clear with the river dropping,and then go brown with the river still dropping more, and no local rain.

[patpicos]

I tried to do a similar spreadsheet...but by then I had too much rum lol

Also, didn't have as much info on Facebook to piece together all the flood time periods.