17 minutes ago, Gov. Desantes issued a state wide "Stay At Home" order for Florida.
Say "goodbye" to the Ginnie girls until next summer.
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17 minutes ago, Gov. Desantes issued a state wide "Stay At Home" order for Florida.
Say "goodbye" to the Ginnie girls until next summer.
Thanks for the info. It's about time.
Order goes into effect 1201 am Friday.
With all the hysteria:Quote:
Originally Posted by tursiops
Anyone know the corona deaths vs flu deaths this year and 2017
Anyone know ave age of corona deaths and the predisposing health problems
Anyone know symptoms of infected under age 50
My dad stormed Omaha beach and we are hero’s for unemploying millions of people and wearing our masks.
God bless the media, re-election year politics and Mellenials
@Puttzer:
Since you like facts, below is an answer to your first question. Your second question disgusts me as it assumes that some "Deserve to die". Reading your prior posts, it seems that you had some medical issues in 2016, you probably have some pre-existing conditions that you might worry about, eh? Your third, since I know people my age(and younger) who have been infected, and I'm 36, I'll tell you that those I know who have recovered have had symptoms ranging from cough, chest soreness, tightness of breath, pneumonia, etc, and some I don't know but read an article about had actual strokes that they are blaming on COVID19. Note, I am not a doctor, but I'm also including a great article below from a doctor who is well known in scuba circles, and who also contracted COVID19, Dr. Douglas Ebersole.
2016-2017 flu season: there were 29 million flu cases in the United States; and estimated 497,000 flu-related hospitalizations and 38,000 flu-related deaths. Ref[1]
2017-2018 flu season: there were 48.8 million people getting sick with influenza, 22.7 million people going to a health care provider, 959,000 hospitalizations, and 79,400 deaths from influenza. Ref[2]
2018-2019 flu season: 37.4 million and 42.9 million people contracted the flu during the 2018-2019 season. Those cases led to between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalization and 36,400-61,200 deaths Ref[3]
[1]: https://cnsnews.com/article/internat...flu-associated
[2]: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...18/archive.htm
[3]: https://www.passporthealthusa.com/20...19-flu-season/
Corona Deaths since 3/1/2020 (in the US):
Cases: ~1Million
Deaths:~56000.
Reference: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Dr. Ebersole's article: https://www.divetech.com/post/diving...ra-of-covid-19
Please get this through your head: There have been more deaths in the US in the last 2 months, then there were in 2016, nearly the same number as 2018, and less than 2017. However, the numbers in items 1/2/3 above were for a FULL YEAR. This has all happened in 2 months, so multiply my numbers of corona deaths by 6 to get a rough extrapolated figure. Here, I'll do it for you:
Cases: ~6 million
Deaths: ~336000
Do the math, this disease is much much much stronger than the flu if not controlled.
I’m not arguing that corona has become more serious than the flu. I’m only commenting that you can’t just take a number and multiply it by 6 to get the yearly toll. Statistical analysis doesn’t work that way. It is multifactorial and is not a straight line. There is a curvature to the number of cases that can’t be predicted. People on the internet, in the news, and on tv that just take 2 months of numbers and multiply to make it the equivalent of a year are not doing anyone a service. It’s completely inaccurate and in my opinion is fear mongering. Even renowned epidemiologists around the world are using our known predictive statistical monitoring algorithms and still don’t know if they have an accurate answer or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord1234
This is completely correct. I actually assume the number would be higher, since the curve wouldn't be a straight line, but more likely exponential.Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
Yeah it doesnt work that way either. I?m not an epidemiologist so I dont know what the answer will be. But I have advanced training in epidemiology and public health and I can confidently tell you both of those extrapolations dont fit with statistical prediction methos for something like this. I really wish people would stop being arm chair statisticians. The people who?s statistical epidemiology training makes mine look like kindergarten honestly don?t even have a clue where the final numbers will lie.
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Yup. As my stats professor said, many years ago, "Statistics rarely prove or predict with high degrees of accuracy; they just give us some idea as to the degree of uncertainty."Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
Mike
Richard, I did not think you were so cynical. Every generation believes that younger people are the problem of the day. Get over it, it has always been thus. Remember, they will be the ones running things in 10-15 years. You get two choices, piss and moan or support them. It will work out the same for all of the angry old people who's father went ashore at Omaha Beach, in 10-15 years (if you make it through Covid 19), your biggest concern will be not crapping on yourself and what flavor pudding you get for lunch. Personally, I am looking forward to banana, given to me by a big boobed drool nurse to wipe my chin. And remember, when they are busy changing your Depends, they are heroes.
I have no medical background, but do have a high degree of training in statistical analysis, and have worked in that field.Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
I have seen so much poor analysis lately it drives me nuts. Some is so bad, I can only assume bias. ...or a commitment to being obtuse at the very least.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkR
I really try to stay out of it as to not look like the a-hole, but there are so many people that have no clue what they're talking about and have no knowledge of statistics and in specific epidemiologic statistics that love to do all of these math problems to come up with numbers. It drives me nuts and I truly think it's detrimental to society and truly a form of fear mongering. Even if someone took a basic stats course in high school or college, they should know you can't just take numbers and start multiplying.
I really do bite my tongue more than it seems, but eventually I can't shut up. I've found even people that I have thought to be logical and intelligent people reading crap on the internet or hearing on the news and then suddenly doing a quick math problem and come up with long term numbers. I lose a little respect for them very quickly.
Do you know any of these numbers?Quote:
Originally Posted by Puttzer
People got scared when they saw what happened in Italy including me (I don't know whether you get much news from outside the US). I think that's understandable. People have been turned down for treatment at hospitals because the health system is/was overwhelmed. Do you think this is all made up? We (Germany) just starting to open shops and other stuff back up again... now that the health care system had some time to stock up on PPE, ICU beds and ramp up testing... that's what the shutdown was for. Buying time to be able to take care of the people who will get sick...
What other choices are there? Would you really want your country be the guinea pig so you can find out how bad this is? Really?
... and not even Trump is willing to make that bet and he is nuts (not being political, I'm sure even most of his fans think he's nuts but they like it).
Who says people are heros for 'unemploying millions of people'? Always accusing the opposite site of being malicous is counterproductive, man. That's not helping anyone.
What a stroke!
Really? Name calling? Is this all you have?Quote:
Originally Posted by cavekrazi
"Anyone know the corona deaths vs flu deaths this year and 2017"
The C.D.C. tracks flu season as being a 26 week (6 month) period from October 1 to April 1. Each "flu season" is identified by the TWO years in which the season occurred.
The following data is found on the C.D.C. website
2010-11 37,000 deaths (best estimates)
2011-12 12,000 deaths
2012-13 23,000 deaths
2013-14 38,000 deaths
2014-15 51,000 deaths
2015-16 23,000 deaths
2016-17 38,000 deaths
2017-18 34,000 deaths
There were NO COVID deaths during the period 2010-2019
The FIRST confirmed US death from Covid occured Jan 29, 2020
For the first 3 weeks of the COVID Pandemic, death rates were too small to be tracked significantly
For the 6 week period March 17 to April 27, 58,258 Americans died.
The INCREASE in American death rates has slowed to a Daily increase of 2.4%,
or a doubling of death rate every 31 days.
Down from a peak increase of death rate doubling every 3 days in late March, 2020.
Fatality Demographics are based on KNOWN COVID positive cases, NOT general public
Death rate by age:
10 to 50 yrs old : 0.5% mortality
50 to 80 yr old: linear rise from 0.5% to 15% mortality
Death rate by Gender
Male: 2.7% mortality
Female: 1.7% mortality
Comorbidities:
88% of deaths had 2 or more comorbidities
6.3% of deaths had only 1 comorbidities
6.1% of deaths had no known comorbidities
Comorbidities ranked from highest to lowest:
Hypertension
Obesity
Coronary Artery Disease
Asthma
Congestive Heart Failure
Cancer
C.O.P.D.
Kidney disease/insufficiency/failure
Personal Opinion: ANY (repeat ANY) attempt to "plot" a future trend of ANYTHING involved in COVID is a lost cause. EVERY SINGLE prediction has proved wrong by orders of magnitude. Some high, some low. The simple fact is that we are in COMPLETELY UNKNOWN territory here, and we can ONLY track PAST trends with any level of accuracy.
That being said, the general slowing of new cases and death rates does give me some hope. Even though there are FAR too many unknown variables to make any predictions.
May God stand between you and harm in all the dark places we must walk.
It seems to me there is a good chance that the number of deaths from coronavirus has been overstated. I recently read an article where it was stated Pennsylvania decreased their count by 200.
Also Cavekrazi -- what is your point?
In New York, our fatality rates have had to be revised Upward, because of early deaths that were NOT attributed to COVID. We also have the New York City problem of unattended deaths at home not being counted. Only "official" deaths in hospitals or health facilities have been counted as COVID deaths in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Wyatt
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Wyatt
So proof that as I?ve been saying nobody f-in knows the full story. Therefore how can internet cowboys know how to calculate future deaths? They cant.Quote:
Originally Posted by gschaut
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Taking actions (removing stay at home) without accurate predictions of future events (infection/fatality rates) is kind of like cave diving in OC WITHOUT pressure gauges.Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
Do you push your luck, and risk getting fatally "bitten in the butt". OR be ULTRA conservative because you cannot safely know the risks?
Im not against being smart and taking precautioms at all. And I?m against opening everything back up like it seems everybody wants.Quote:
Originally Posted by gschaut
My only issue is people with minimal knowledge extrapolating and predicting deaths and illness rates all over the internet. Its gotten very tiresome. Leave it to the professionals (who obviously cant even predict this unprecedented event)
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Me and my girlfriend are willing to camp and bring all our food so we won't have to go to restaurants or motels or anything we just want to dive. The only thing we will need is gas and air in our tanks. Are any of the fresh water springs in Florida going to be open in a couple of weeks? I know Vortex and Blue Grotto are both still open now. Anything else?
You?ll find out on friday what the state starts opening. Not gonna lie though. Most floridians I know still want out of state visitors to stay at home. My county announced yesterday its opening county parks and beaches. While locals are happy for the reprieve from being home, the biggest sentiment I?m hearing from people is they hope it doesnt encourage tourists to visit.Quote:
Originally Posted by CaveSloth
My general gut feeling is state parks and places like ginnie will be free to open in may. Then the question will be if there will be reclosures due to uptick in nimbers. My other gut feeling is if florida starts opening everything back up it will be much harder to close things again if theres a second burst of infections. I?m in favor of keeping stuff closed until the end of may. But my vote doesnt count.
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The Florida Keys is closed with a roadblock at MM 112.5. The sentiments of the majority of Keys locals seems to be to keep it closed during all of May. Residents can come and go now with all the proper ID proving Keys residency. Some people have been caught using "fake id's" trying to get in.
I am in High Springs and I agree Ginnie will likely open on or about May 1 -- I also think dive shops up here will be able to open at or around that time. While here we live on the Santa Fe River and see lots of boaters, canoers and kayakers up and down the river every day.
People in the stores are practicing social distancing but less than half are wearing masks. The stores are enforcing how many can be in the store at a time. I think Winn-Dixie allows 64 or so in the store at a time.
I think the keys are smart. It?s better to lose an extra month of tourism dollars than 6+ months if they start letting people in and their infection rate skyrocketsQuote:
Originally Posted by Jim Wyatt
I cannot argue with that logic, as much as it sucks.Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
Even if the parks open, don?t expect to find any cave diving.
Madison, LR, and Telford are all brown. I suspect we?ll lose Cow in a day or two. I?d be surprised if Peacock or OG are clear.
I visited several springs on the Suwannee today and they all look less than appealing.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...016b83834a.jpg
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Only in America.
https://www.whitehousegiftshop.com/p...vid-heroes.htm
Finally, a easy to read graph of all available Covid morbidity data. And you math guys say its hard.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWtFKswU...jpg&name=large
Isn't that the map of Little River on the wall at Dive Outpost?Quote:
Originally Posted by OFG-1
Actually, (almost) NOBODY wants to "open things back up" before it's safe. Several reputable polling agencies show Americans AGAINST premature lifting of restrictions.Quote:
Originally Posted by rddvet
85% of ALL Americans AND 67% of registered Republicans OPPOSE lifting travel, retail, stay at home restrictions until the SCIENTISTS say it's safe.
The only disagreement seems to come from one or two "Fair and Balanced" news networks, a few multi-Billionaires and the "Moon landing was faked" tin foil hat crowd.
I would say 90% of my clients complain to me they want everything back open. So it skews my view. It?s actually scary how many people in my local community are pro opening.Quote:
Originally Posted by gschaut
Any idea when you think they will declare it "safe"?
It's always been safe. There is no such thing as COVID-19. All those medical personnel and grieving relatives on TV are paid actors hired by the "Deep State" as part of a plot to destroy the Bill of Rights, and turn Americans into mindless zombies bent to the will of the Liberal Fake News Media Conspiracy.Quote:
Originally Posted by DESERT DIVER
(sorry, it's late. Just got off working at an isolation facility for people doing a VERY convincing act of being quarantined for 14 days until it's safe to go back home.)
Well according to Florida’s governor it’s pretty safe now. He isn’t extending the current rules. As of Monday (I believe when it starts), restaurants and nonessential businesses can reopen but must maintain only 25% capacity. Bars, gyms, and hair salons must remain closed. I don’t see anything specifically about state parks. I suspect they’re going to reopen but we’ll see next week. I’m sure this means Ginnie will reopen. If they do I hope the management isn’t as stupid as before all of this. They weren’t limiting anything up until their closure.Quote:
Originally Posted by DESERT DIVER
The funny thing is, how is anything going to be enforced? Who’s to say what 25% capacity is for some dress shop or some other nonessential business.
Most of the data seems to be here. -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I like that site because it shows the data, but doesn't editorialize. Draw your own conclusions.
Ruh Roh!
Being that covid19 is the most contagious virus in history and that not even 1% of the population has been tested it is blatantly obvious that the official cases are a small fraction of the actual cases.
I would say that you can very conservatively multiply by at least 100 the cases worldwide which would give you a mortality rate no higher than the average flu.
The negative effects of worldwide shutdowns far outweigh the actual negative effects of the virus.
What the point of making up BS numbers? Of course it's higher than the numbers positive tests but if read up on this you'll see that in some regions the vast majority of test come back negative! In late march in Germany they had made 900,000 test of which under 70,000 came back positiv! So less than ten %.Quote:
Originally Posted by phillip1
In a study I posted they looked at a small representative group in a hard hit area, they found only 15% of the people had been infected. 0.37% of the infected had died. That's only in that specific area but at least it's real numbers.
It should be a rule all over the internet that when you claim to know any numbers you must give a source, otherwise you're just feeding conspiracies. And stop comparing it to the flu.
I think the one lesson everybody needs to learn from this is that you, if at all possible, you need to live below your means and always have some money tucked away so you can keep yourself or your business afloat for a couple of month.
This explains why you cannot compare the Covid-19 death rates to the flu death rates. In a quick summary, the current Covid-19 deaths are confirmed deaths. The published flu death rates are CDC estimates that are many times the actual confirmed deaths because they are trying to guess how many died and were not confirmed. The confirmed deaths for the flu each year are a fraction of the CDC estimates, sometimes not more than 3,000 total. If the CDC estimated Covid-19 deaths the way they estimate flu deaths, the Covid-19 deaths right now would probably be over 350,000.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...es-to-oranges/
What are the odds that Morrison will be open and dive-able May 22-25?
I am pretty sure Vortex will be open but we'd rather go to Morrison.
Ginnie posted they?re open as of 10am today. The only note about limiting people os they?re limiting the number of people allowed in the club house at one time. Based on how much they happily packed people in before the shut down I?m sure they wont limit total numbers at all. Just before the shutdwon I dove it twice very early in the am. By the time we were back on land by 11 it was packed. So excpect gonnie to be its typical summer time sh-t show on weekends.
And remember the typical ginnie camper mentality is likely on the side of corona is a hoax perpetrated by the russians. So dont expect anybody to give you 6 ft of clearance.
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https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...tae&gage=carf1 Morrison should be good
If you are talking about US Covid deaths, 350,000 would be more than have died this year, period.
Edit: Sorry, 350,000 would be about half of all deaths in the US for this year to date.
Thanks but is the park itself open?Quote:
Originally Posted by JBP
According to the CDC, in an AVERAGE year, more than 2.8 million Americans die per year (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm), so the average for now would be about 935,000 total deaths. Is this an average year? In an average year we do not hear about bodies rotting in U-haul trucks stored outside morgues because there is no room for them inside. We don't hear of New York City burying bodies in mass graves because the normal body disposal systems are overloaded.Quote:
Originally Posted by DESERT DIVER
But I did not say that it is likely that we have had 350,000 Covid-19 deaths. I said that if we ESTIMATED Covid-19 deaths the way that the CDC ESTIMATES flu deaths, we would have 350,000 deaths. I was being conservative--it would really be more. As the article I noted indicated, the actual number of diagnosed flu deaths gets multiplied by a formula devised by the CDC to ESTIMATE the actual number of flu deaths, including ones that were not diagnosed. It is frequently by a factor of 6-7 or even more. So, if we multiplied the diagnosed number of deaths (right now about 68,000) by 6-7, then we get a range like 400,000-470,000.
Sound too high? Sounds too high to me, too, and it sounds too high to the doctor who wrote that article. It sounds to him as if the CDC formula for estimating flu deaths is way, way too high. Think about it. How many people do you know or even hear of that die from the flu each year--or in your lifetime?
The point is this: you cannot compare the number of people CONFIRMED to have died by Covid-19 by a scientific test to an ESTIMATE of flu deaths that is probably wildly inflated by a CDC formula.
BTW, I just learned that a high school friend of mine in Arkansas just started showing Covid-19 signs--chills and fever. The symptoms aren't bad enough, he was told, to get a test, and the nearest available testing site is an hour away. He was told to stay home until symptoms get worse--hospital is too crowded. If he suddenly gets worse and dies, his death will NOT be recorded as a Covid-19 death, even if he actually has it, because he wasn't tested for it.
CDC provisional site is showing 719,000 as of May 1 but not all deaths are counted that recently. The CDC site also shows 37,000 covid deaths as of May 1. CDC seems to have lots of different ways of counting.
I wonder if the CDC is way off on flu deaths. You would think after all these years they would have done careful sampling to know if their numbers are close, or maybe not.
"In an average year we do not hear about bodies rotting in U-haul trucks stored outside morgues because there is no room for them inside. We don't hear of New York City burying bodies in mass graves because the normal body disposal systems are overloaded."
In an "average" year, the monthly death rate in NYC peaks at under 5,000 deaths per month. For the last 6 weeks, the NYC mortality rate has been close to 10,000 deaths per month. The previous record high was September, 2001 with a mortality rate of 7,000 people in one month.
During the "peak period" in NYC April 1 to 8, people were dying at a rate equal to 13,500 deaths/month.
A city that NORMALLY peaks at no greater than 5,000 deaths per month experiences a daily rate 3 1/2 times LARGER than normal.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html
Two weeks ago, President Trump said the total number of deaths could reach 50-60,000. That was passed a week later.
Last week, President Trump said the total number of deaths could reach as high as 60-70,000. That will be passed later today.
Yesterday, President Trump made several predictions. Although the numbers varied, he said the total number of deaths could reach the 80-100,000 range. We should be in that range sometime next week.
The New York Times has reported an internal White House document predicting that the daily death totals will rise throughout May and reach 3,000 by June 1. The White House denies it.
I believe some countries (especially Russia and China) are lying about their total numbers, so it is difficult to compare our totals internationally with any real accuracy. For those interested in such a comparison, though, the United States currently has 1/3 of the world's total cases. We have 28% of the world's total deaths. Testing has been an issue--of all countries with decent populations, 20 of them have tested a higher percentage of their populations than we have. Of the really small countries, there are more many more than that. As for the statement that we have tested more than the rest of the world combined, if you combine Russia, Italy, and Spain, those 3 countries combined have tested more than a million more people than we have.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Nobody knows how many cases there are in any country. Those numbers only tell you how many positive tests they counted and that isn't telling you much.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAd