Just keep in mind that the current predictions don't have the storm on a track that might affect Cave Country or Marianna until some time Tuesday, and the models aren't precise at all that far out.
Right now the projected cone of uncertainty includes pretty much all of Florida, plus the entire coast of Mississippi and Alabama, plus the eastern edge of Louisiana. The eye could cross the coast anywhere in these areas, or it could track on a path such that any of these states, Florida included, is entirely unaffected, and the prediction would still be right.
For some reason I can't upload an image right now, I wanted to attach the current 5-day watch cone from the NHC for posterity's sake. The center track they show makes it look like the storm will probably hook right up into Pensacola some time Wednesday. That center track doesn't mean a whole lot so far in the future though. I'd put down a buck twenty against anybody's $1 that the eye will follow a path that falls somewhere in the cone, but just keep in mind that the distance from edge to edge at the Tuesday 2PM mark is pretty durned big, maybe 500 miles across.
Owing to a trip I have coming up in a couple of weeks, it is extremely important to me that this storm doesn't cause a ruckus in Cave Country-- I'm having to keep a firm grip on myself not to start worrying for no good reason.


Reply With Quote

Bookmarks