Hello,
Are there any general observations in prognosticating what the dive conditions may be certain FL caves in the coming days? Ie, if S Georgia gets more than 2" of rain expect Peacock to be blown out 3 days later... etc...
Thanks
Eric
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Hello,
Are there any general observations in prognosticating what the dive conditions may be certain FL caves in the coming days? Ie, if S Georgia gets more than 2" of rain expect Peacock to be blown out 3 days later... etc...
Thanks
Eric
The rivers are dropping, and no rain in south Georgia until next week, so things should be good. Madison is probably still tannic, but the rest are good.
Kelly just posted that Madison is back open with 20-30ft viz and very high flow.
It seems like there are no hard rules for cave prognosis.....one must rely on DiReps (pilots have PiReps or Pilot Reports, we need DiReps!). Seems to me like the rules of thumb are S.GA and N.FL rains blow out Cave Country caves.....and springtime isn't a great time for those caves, either.
Each system behaves differently,and there is no sure rules of thumb because there are so many factors at play. For example,a well recharged aquifer will not always reverse quickly,and will clear up faster,but this is a difficult thing to judge. I use many things in figuring what to expect- when some people I know that live the river have their wells go tannic and then clear, some test wells that are sampled for conductivity,river stage when the reversal occurred and if it is dropping quickly to name a few. We are supposed to have a rainy winter,because it seems like the spring rains have moved to earlier in the year. If this is the case,then we could see repeat of the past couple years. Note, this is normal and needed part of the cave ecosystems,the drought years,although they allowed year round diving were actually bad for the cave systems.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigTex1836
Any signs that the water levels are dropping?
Yes,but slow, especially since south GA got a lot of rain last weekendQuote:
Originally Posted by T. Bix
Gauge at Pinetta on the Withlacoochee is still at action stage after having gone into minor flood stage,so Madison will be blown for awhile
Suwannee Luraville peaked 31.22 on Jan 4th,but still above 30'; at Branford peaked Jan5th,but only dropped a few inches
When the Withlacoochee flooded this go-around, There was tons of mud/debris dumped into the Suwannee. For the last few weeks, the river water's been a real muddy/chunky mess. I suspect once stuff starts springing again, it will take a little bit to get all that junk out.
http://oi61.tinypic.com/2vsi682.jpg
http://oi60.tinypic.com/rlwevk.jpg
However, worth mentioning that there are still dozens of systems springing clear right now (just not any along the Suwannee). The Ichetucknee & Santa Fe are doing great right now.
Sad, but very true!Quote:
Originally Posted by adam_Hughes
Forrest or Kelly,
Is this usually the case with these type of floods? I've seen the river levels this high before, but never with them moving at this clip or this amount of debris. I'm new to this, so I'm still trying to understand how it all works (as I'm sure others are too). Over the last few weeks, there have been some incredibly dramatic apocalyptic type stuff happening out there. At one point, I saw entire fully grown oak trees drifting down the river.
Here's a before and after near Falmouth right when the flood started. The pictures where taken 72 hours apart, and show at least a 10' rise is river level accompanied with water that had the consistency of chocolate milk. Blew my freaking mind:
http://oi61.tinypic.com/dbinhc.jpg
http://oi59.tinypic.com/20jsm81.jpg
Only when it rains so hard and fast in Georgia. If you look at the slope of the river rise, you will see it is much steeper than normal. That Is why I was warning against going into Little River, in case it reversed while someone was in there. Under normal river rise, you can dive right up until it reverses, and still be able to swim out. I have seen Little River sucking water in so fast that logs were swirling in a whirlpool over the entrance, with the center depressed several inches. That is probably over twenty times the normal outflow, even when it is pumping so hard you have trouble swimming in. Imaging trying to swim out with even twice that current, nevermind twenty times that.Quote:
Originally Posted by adam_Hughes
my bet is peacock will reopen when the gauge drops below 28' based on the most recent flood. At this rate....that will be at the end of January. River very slow to drop.
The most recent flood was from 03/21/2014 to 06/05/2014. The cave flooded between 29.38' and 30.33'. It reopened between 28.18' and 27.47'
Typically, based on last 2-3 years (except the 2012 flood), the cave reopens shortly after the river drops 1' below the level the cave originally closed.
analysis data using facebook content from NFSA page and USGS gauges
http://bit.ly/1xUqV2g
Awesome, thorough explanation! Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
That may not work out this year. The river went up much faster than normal.Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
I like the spreadsheet. However, in my experience, trying to predict this stuff is like herding cats.
Wow,you are giving it better odds than I would. I would use the Carl Sagan method,"...billions and billions..."Quote:
Originally Posted by adam_Hughes
Still fun to poke at the data. Been fairly consistent except 2012.
Better than nothing. At least I can do some monitoring from far away and help with trip planning
Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
Absolutely! I too have poured hours and hours into spreadsheets trying to conceptualize this. It just seems like every time I drive out somewhere expecting to see a certain condition, it's damn near opposite. But every once in a while, you'll get it right, and it feels like you won the lottery. Don't get to disheartened if your predictions don't pan out, because I sure did. Do you have any other spreadsheets that you wouldn't mind sharing?
Nothing wrong with looking at the data,it will get you close. I get pretty close to figuring out when springs will reverse based on river gauges and other factors,but even then, it is a ballpark number. Madison has always been one that I thought was pretty simple,until last late spring we saw it clear with the river dropping,and then go brown with the river still dropping more, and no local rain.Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
I tried to do a similar spreadsheet...but by then I had too much rum lol
Also, didn't have as much info on Facebook to piece together all the flood time periods.
Once the river levels stop making sense, I start requesting NOAA-NCDC data sets in hopes of seeing trends: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access
My prediction seems to have worked :) Peacock is open at 27.29. Flooded at 28.28Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
Spreadsheet updated http://bit.ly/1xUqV2g
Ha, I actually thought about your prediction earlier when I heard Peacock opened. Just goes to show that it never hurts to be optimistic. Glad to hear I was wrong on this one.
Now let's put bets on Madison :) even with lack of data.. Looks like it should be open now. I know its far to go and get verification for perhaps nothing..
Interesting you should say that because I wondered the same,and I made contact,but it is still browned out. The bad news South Georgia got a lot of rainQuote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
Does peacock have an equivalent gauge to Madison?
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb...ate=2015-01-31
Any updates on conditions in the cave? Improving/deteriorating?
Glad to see it holding close to 30' river gauge level
Closest is Troy: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=02320250
There is also a well gage: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?si...00010082594201
Both gages have been acting up lately, some parameters have been offline since December. I contacted Ronald Knapp about this a few weeks ago. The following was his response:
RE:#02320250 TROY SPRING NEAR BRANFORD FLA. We are not currently displaying some of the water quality parameters because the spring is in backwater condition from the Suwannee River. Once the backwater condition ends, we will have all the parameters available on line.
:?Quote:
Originally Posted by patpicos
http://oi61.tinypic.com/1zwhxmp.jpg
Ugh. Considering it flooded in mid 28' range last time..it is holding. Mind u it was a fast rise.
Withlacoochee is starting to drop. Suwanee isn't :( that rain is not good